HVAC Organic Demand Trends - November 2024
Welcome BDR Coaches!
👋 Hey, Jon here! This week, we are exploring November’s Organic revenue performance with the continued use of our larger data set (more businesses in different areas of the US).
The organic channels in this sample include Google and Bing Organic Listings, Google Business Profile, Organic Facebook, Yelp Organic, DuckDuckGo, and YouTube Organic.
Before we get into the November data, I’ll summarize October’s data below.
For every $1 spent on Organic in October, $51.30 in closed revenue was generated from new and existing customers, and $22 in closed revenue was generated from new customers (up from $20.70 in September):
Below are the YoY trends comparing October 2024 to October 2023:
Unique Lead Volume: +20% YoY
Average Ticket: +1% YoY ($2,981)
Sold Revenue: +18% YoY
Customer Acquisition Cost: $47.71 (-14% YoY)
Closed Revenue New Customers: +21% YoY (22x return on investment)
Closed Revenue Total Customers: +22% YoY (51.30x return on investment)
With that, let’s dive into November 2024!
Organic Unique Lead Volume Increased by 10% Year-over-Year
The volume of unique leads from organic channels dropped 9% month over month, along with booked customers (13%) and paying customers (4%).Â
However, the year-over-year view looks much more promising:
Unique Leads +10%
Booked Customers +10%
Paying Customers +8%
New Customer Only:
The unique lead volume from new customers increased by 8% year over year, booked new customers increased by 6%, and new paying customers increased by 7%.
Note that these were all down month-over-month: -9% unique leads, -10% booked customers, -1% paying customers.
48% of new customer leads converted via the Google Business Profile, generating 41% of new customer closed revenue for the month:
While GBP performance has been consistent month-over-month and year-over-year leading the way for new customer lead and revenue generation, Bing’s November performance is worth noting:
The volume of closed revenue from new customers who converted via Bing Organic increased 64% year-over-year, generating 4% of the total new customer revenue volume. This is something to keep an eye on in the coming months.
It Cost $51.89 to Acquire a Paying Customer From Organic Channels in November, Down 7% Year-over-Year
Customer acquisition costs from organic sources came down year over year even though spend remained unchanged. In November '24, it cost just $15.27 per unique lead (versus $16.67 the year prior).
Normally, a reduction in customer acquisition cost (when spend is unchanged) from organic comes from improved book rates, run rates, and paying customer rates. But all three of those metrics decreased (although only slightly), so the core reason for the reduction was increased overall demand and more leads to work with despite slightly worse efficiency metrics.
New Customers
It cost $147 to acquire a new customer from organic channels (total spend divided by the number of new paying customers) but those customers spent $1,210 more on average.
Average Tickets Increased by 1.5% Year-over-Year
Average tickets from new and existing customers increased slightly (+1.5%) to $2,856, but new customer average tickets dropped 4% YoY (down to $3,644).
Interestingly enough, 17% of new customer run jobs from organic converted via online scheduling (Schedule Engine) and Forms.
Both of those conversion tools had the highest average ticket of new customer conversions, at $5,500.
And when we break down average ticket by channel (paired with unique leads to get context of volume), we can see that Bing organic actually drove the highest average tickets in November (versus Yelp and DuckDuckGo in October):
Sold Revenue from Organic Leads Increased 10% Year-over-Year
Across new and existing customers, sold revenue was up 10% in November 2024 compared to November 2023. This indicates that December ‘24 will start stronger than the prior year.
Revenue potential was also up 9% year over year ($433,464 per business in this sample), and 55% of that total revenue opportunity generated by Organic channels converted to sold/closed revenue.
For new customers only, sold revenue was down 9% year over year, but total revenue opportunity was up 4.5% year over year ($212,962 per business in this sample).
50% of the total revenue opportunity from new customers converted to sold/closed revenue, up 4% from the prior month.
Closed Revenue from Organic Leads Increased by 22% Year-over-Year
Across new and existing customers, closed revenue increased 9.5% year-over-year.
In November 2024, organic channels generated $194,444 in closed revenue per business in this sample across new and existing customers and $85,293 in closed revenue from new customers only per business.
Looking at new customers only, Organic channels drove a 19x return on investment in November.
Across new and existing customers, the total ROI of Organic was 44.1x (+9% year-over-year).
The November ‘24 data across the board is positive—almost everything is trending up from last year, and sold data indicates a good start to December.
However, it is worth noting that a lot of these numbers came down from October, so the weather is likely a factor to MoM declines. Hopefully, weather will positively contribute to a strong month in December for month-over-month growth!
Until next time . . .
-Jon